Our view:
In our blog posting of 22nd May on the history of climate change and the present position, we had calculated that as per the World Bank data of 2007 if the population and the GDP figures were taken, then the total emission produced by U.S. Japan, EU and BRIC nations accounts for 87 % of the gross carbon emissions produced annually.
Whereas U.S. is the single largest producer emitting 6.92 Billion tonnes C02 today almost 23 % of the total emissions, the EU accounts as the largest group emitting a whopping 9.75 Billion Tonnes. However both EU and US will soon be eclipsed by the rapidly growing and populous BRIC nations namely Brazil, Russia, India, China who today produce a total of 7.07 Billion tonnes or around 23.6 % of the total global emissions. If current economic and population growth are maintained and the Technology T of IPAT equation does not see a change, then BRIC nations will produce 9.5 Billion TPA of C02 by 2015 and 14 Billion Tonnes by 2020, almost half of the world’s carbon emissions of today.
It is neither the US or EU but the BRIC nations that are the fulcrum of climate change that can either destroy or develop a new and positive plan for climate change.
One that is based on a positive life cycle of high demand, high investment, clean energy and environment programs instead of negative penal deterrents like Carbon credits and carbon tariffs. Why?
Because BRIC nations have the largest land mass
Because BRIC nations have largest green cover
Because BRIC nations have the largest barren land
Because BRIC nations have the largest population base
Because BRIC nations have the largest population growth
Because BRIC nations have the fastest economic growth
Because BRIC nations are the largest demand centres
Because BRIC nations have the largest energy needs
Because BRIC nations generate the maximum Carbon per kilowatt
Because BRIC nations are emerging hence both dynamic and volatile.
The list is limited to these 10 most crucial attributes but can go one and on as these nations together hold the largest hydrocarbon reserves, minerals,fossil fuels, rainforests, deserts, adolescent population, uneducated mass, poor people, a largely unstructured legal system, most widespread energy sources, largest number of highly polluting geographically dispersed units, maximum micro units etc. etc.
Now let us study the metrics of the BRIC nations individually to understand their individual and collective ability to destroy or develop the positive life cycle plan of climate change.
BRAZIL: Producing just under 0.94 Billion Tonnes of C02 annually, Brazil is the cleanest of the BRIC nations with a moderate population of 19 million people. Being also the worlds largest green cover it has a great positive potential if its rainforests can be preserved and extended. However if it is lost it is the biggest global disaster that could hit mankind.Its energy demand is not high as China or India, nor is its population and growth rate so explosive.
RUSSIA : With 1.02 Billion tonnes of C02 produced per annum is next on the list but again neither has the potential to damage or propel the positive cycle plan simply because it has a low population base of 14.2 million and a already reasonable per capita GDP of $ 14,300 which limits the possibility of explosive growth. However large desolate plains, high hydrocarbons and fuel reserves and massive desolate stretches of land that can be turned green are important parameters to consider.
INDIA : India has a population of 1.14 Billion and a GDP of less than $ 2800 per person. Both are growing phenomenally and hence it has huge damage potential in case the Technology factor of IPAT does not change. With huge energy demand and a solar friendly terrain it has the potential of changing the dynamics and the economics of clean energy.
CHINA: However the India effect is a shade pale when compared to the China effect which with a per capita GDP of $ 5420 U.S. Dollars, the and the highest population of over 1.3 Billion and meteoric economic growth rates has the maximum damage potential to any climate change occurrence in the world. However these two populace nations have huge energy needs and can change the economics of non-conventional energy and make it cheaper than fossil fuel in less than a decade. They also have comfortable foreign exchange reserves, with China being Americas biggest purchaser of Dollars and Treasury Bonds. This means any global investment plan centred around the BRIC nations need not be grant based but debt based which will ensure that the investor nations also get their dues and benefits from such a profit sharing venture.
So the positive life cycle plan of climate change will have to revolve round the fulcrum BRIC nations which hold the key to making alternate energy cheaper and reducing the carbon emission round the earth. As a matter of fact the BRIC nations are emerging like a nuclear fusion experiment. If nurtured they can be harnessed but if they go out of control they can singly and collectively destroy the climate and the global atmosphere.
In this blog from “ecology to economy” we deal with discussion of sustainable practices which we must adopt for the for various aspects of economy as well as climate change. We are focusing in this issue on the role of BRIC nations and the real implications it will have on the climate change both positive and negative in the decade to come.
We could be wrong. Tell us if we are & why? We encourage diverse opinion even if it is from commercially interested groups opposed to our thinking.
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