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The Business Risk Management Series Ba01 Explanatory notes

The Business risk management series started by us in the 1st week of July at various professional presentation sites and has evoked great response. The first slide presentation in the this Risk management series has received thousands of views, with over 10 % downloads and dozens of acclamation / comments. . This was followed by the case studies Ba31 onwards which have proved even more popular. Till date
Case Study Ba 31 has 3300 plus views at Slideshare, Ba 32 has 1800 plus & Ba 33 has viewership touching 1000 . All in around a month (Ba31) or 2 weeks (Ba33)viewing

During the 3rd week of August we were approached by insightory.com to present
this slideshow in KEY INSIGHTS to share with their illustrious visitors. We were honoured and humbled.

We are now going to explain why, how and what we want to achieve by presenting this Business Risk management series at in slides and also provide a key route map for the series, for convenience of the reader. The Business Risk Management series book is going to be the volume 3 of the Project Management Time Cycle: Time Cycle Module ( ISBN 1440493332- Vol 1) series. Of course it is going to be a much more expanded work as it will not only cover Project or Operational Risk but also Market based and Credit based Risks, without which Risk management is not complete. The Time based assessment of Risk, is the core of the TCM Risk Management Theory. Absent in the neo-classical Risk management theory, we feel this proved to be its chief drawback and its undoing during the U.S. housing mortgage credit crisis, along with the insufficient techniques for analysing and modelling of credit risks.

Warren Buffet the legendary investor who early in the year 2002 had famously prophesised “ derivatives are the financial weapon of mass destruction “ had also commented about inadequate risk management techniques during the U.S. housing bubble “When the tide goes out, you find out who is swimming naked.” Certainly the financial upheaval of the last two years has revealed a number of inadequately clad celebrity investors. So whereas the core theory of Risk Management presented in these slides is revolving on several hypothetical case studies in various segments and industry verticals, the market and credit based risks, the crisis, its reasons, the problems of risk identification, measurement, mitigation and the systemic risk regulation are several topics which we will deal in detail.


We started the series on the 25th August in insightory by the 18 slide presentation "Living dangerously : managing risks in business ".

The objective of this slide was to highlight the importance and the new role of day to day risk management in business. The fact that Risk today is no longer a uncertainty but distinct probability, a regular and repetitive occurrence, caused us to deviate from the classical interpretation of Risk. We believe that in the coming years, increasingly Banks and financial institutions and Corporates will have to develop their own Risk Management Plans to survive and also to meet regulatory compliances. Also the complex threats and opportunities surrounding the modern day business objectives expose the inadequacies of the current methods to track risk. After identification of the top business risks today, it transpires that even in this very difficult business environment, more opportunities exist than threats. Thus it is only the mindset of the people that is creating an impression that this is the time to take defensive positions at any cost.

However the most important indicator of Risk is "VARIANCE" which is the key to tracking Risk as per the TCM. All these threats and opportunities will be analysed through predictive analytics and shall be treated independently and developed in the Book and a few case studies shall also be done. We would like to also take up real time case studies that users and readers may be actually facing in the Book It shall deal with managing risks while meeting the following business objectives.


Production or Service Generation Objective
Sales Objective
Cost Objective
Time Objective
Quality Objective
Survival Objective
Growth Objective
Dominance Objective
Employee Objective
Social Objective
Client Objective

The book will emphasise on the following Risks (both threats and opportunities) to meet the above business objectives.

Protecting liquidity : Threat
Digitizing Business Process : Opportunity
Controlling operating costs : Threat
Revamping the workforce : Opportunity
Globalizing business operations : Opportunity
Re-working business solution : Opportunity


After explaining the difference in Risk interpretation under the TCM ( Time Cycle Module) the Business Risk Management series slide Ba01 calls for setting up a performance route map based on adapted historical data ( survey data integrated with effect of linear and complex variables)as per the terms of Reference. The methodology on how this is to be actually done is elaborated in the Case Study Slide Shows Ba 31 to Ba 40 which are being shown in the slide show

The Case Study Slideshow Ba31 begins with identifying the process of tracking VARIANCE used in the TCM as the principle Risk identifier. The methodology traditionally used in scientific and engineering applications by CERN, NASA, Exxon or Arcelor Mittal or any other is now constantly being upgraded and is being popularly being used as cloud computing technology by internet biggies Amazon and Google. It is actually an add on to technology and project risk managing principles that relied on application based inputs and not on the neo-classical risk modelling techniques or VaR which are essentially theoritical mathematical models not operational field feedback based applications. It is now possible to create Risk models of neural networks though the detail workings will be available only in the coming few years.

We hope users of insightory.com are benefited by these presentations. We welcome your queries, questions and doubts and shall try to respond to them to the best of our ability.