Business Risk Case Study Ba 31 Explainatory notes

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EXPLAINATORY NOTES TO RISK CASE STUDY Ba31

The Book Project Management Time Cycle deals with optimum utilisation of resources.It introduces the new concept of the Time Cycle Module, TCM, devised to reduce resource consumption in Projects big and small. The concept begins with digitization of all project activities including major 3M resources (Man, Machine and Materials) required to complete a project. Once all the resources are digitized they are quantified in units of man hours, machine hours and inventory measure and allocated to each digitized activity.

The Time Cycle Module TCM attempts the containerization of the digitized project activities . Quantified and measurable 3 M resources are allocated against each activity grouped into weekly Time Cycle Modules. Once the containerization is done as per the preliminary WBS ( Work Breakdown Structure) the activity schedule is re-worked to achieve resource balancing. The challenge of the Project is to see that all containers are optimally loaded with resources to complete activities in the shortest possible time.

Apart from the digitization and Quantification of the Project activities and the 3M Resources (Man, Machine and Material), the Time Cycle Module TCM also helps identify, quantify, measure and mitigate Project Risk.

With Projects becoming increasingly competitive in price (incremental and entry level pricing) and time (just in time inventory management) the relevance of risk management has increased exponentially. Risks both opportunities & threats increase with optimum utilisation techniques being adopted instead of the redundancy methodology applied previously in large projects.

The Risk Management Section of the Project Management Time Cycle is to be dealt in detail in the Time Cycle Module Volume III.However some case studies have been briefly dealt with in Volume I of the Book. The slideshow presented in Ba31 onwards merley elaborates how to do a step by step analysis of those case studies, in detail, by using variance based predictive analytics. The treatment in the slideshows are more elaborate than that given in the Book to help the readers develop analytical experience. They are dealt with sequentially as under:

Laying down the framework Ba31
Identifying boundary conditions & inputs required for analysis Ba 32
Defining the time period of evaluation & repeatability checks Ba 33
Specifying the qualitative aspects & terms of referenceof acceptable variance Ba 34
Identifying the relevant predictors Ba 35
Investigating the Risk cause Ba 36
Measuring Risk and determining the Value at Risk Ba 37
Formulating the Risk Response Ba 38
Risk margin and transferring of Risk Ba 39
Mitigating Threat by sacrificing Opportunity Ba 40


The first case study Ba31 on Risk managing the "Product Launch of a Soft Drink Brand" is based on a case study that is dealt with in Page 26 & 27 of the Book "Time Cycle Module: Vol 1". The first part of the Case Study identifies how the framework is to be laid for a case study and the Terms of Reference fixed. Here again we draw the principles from application based technological and project risks treatment which have traditionally been divided into four constraints the Scope Constraint, The Time Constraint, The Quality Constraint and the Cost constraint. We will demonstrate later in our case studies as how these principles are also applicable to financial risks and how markets and the economy at large can be made safe if we adhere to them.