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Bringing in Clean Energy to gradually replace fossil fuels by 2020 is no longer a pipe dream.Over the last one year dramatic developments have happened, some by design and others by accident that has opened up the early roadmap to a global energy policy. This energy policy need not be accepted by the bureaucracy of Climate Change Conferences held by the UNFCCC and IPCC, as major players are independantly pursuing it immaterial of the global agreements, as it is partly market driven, and partly need driven
The failure of COP15 Copenhagen Conference, The BP oil spill fiasco, the ability to control energy prices within $80 in the last quarter, the substantial investments by the world's largest energy consumer China as well as other nations into clean energy shows that positive changes are begining to happen, on a piecemeal basis.The challenge for governments is now to analyse the trends and set a routemap for the future energy policy.
It is important to first reduce the speculation in oil prices and stabilise the prices of fossil fuel i.e both coal and oil. It must be understood that 60% of
the energy prices worldwide are based on generation from coal based plants, while
30% from oil and gas fired units. Remaining 10% is based on non-conventional energy.
Once the speculative element is controlled in energy prices, the prices of the oil shall fall by a third. This shall enable Governments across the world remove the subsidies and raise fuel prices back to current levels without subsidising.
The government's all over the world must gradually lift fossil fuel prices while granting incentives to non-fossil fuels to establish a long-term price signal.
The basic transformation to a clean energy regime will take at least 10 years, and there will be several disruptive technologies in solar energy, wind energy and in
harnessing of water resources that will reduce cost of alternates over the next ten years. However for that to happen major manufacturers must move base to China and India where competative volume markets provide the ideal environment to create step changes in pricing. The trend has already started with major Spanish, Germman, US, Japanese, Chinese and Indian manufacturers already setting up base in the two countries who will be the largest consumers of energy by 2020
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